Comments on: Running out of cars http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/ Used Car Market - A Guide for Success Tue, 07 Feb 2012 23:17:00 +0000 hourly 1 http://wordpress.org/?v=3.1.3 By: Dennis Cardinale http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-3110 Dennis Cardinale Thu, 05 Feb 2009 04:05:18 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-3110 Has there ever been a better time to mine your data base and gear up for a direct mail campaign to your customers who purchased 3 years ago and entice them to trade-in their current vehicle? Don't forget there is no transportation fee, auction fee, or buyer fee on a trade-in and they are quite possibly CHEAPER than an auction purchased vehicle at todays prices-even after a generous allowance (not to mention moving the new car!) Has there ever been a better time to mine your data base and gear up for a direct mail campaign to your customers who purchased 3 years ago and entice them to trade-in their current vehicle?
Don’t forget there is no transportation fee, auction fee, or buyer fee on a trade-in and they are quite possibly CHEAPER than an auction purchased vehicle at todays prices-even after a generous allowance (not to mention moving the new car!)

]]> By: Dennis Cardinale http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-19103 Dennis Cardinale Thu, 05 Feb 2009 04:05:00 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-19103 Has there ever been a better time to mine your data base and gear up for a direct mail campaign to your customers who purchased 3 years ago and entice them to trade-in their current vehicle? Don't forget there is no transportation fee, auction fee, or buyer fee on a trade-in and they are quite possibly CHEAPER than an auction purchased vehicle at todays prices-even after a generous allowance (not to mention moving the new car!) Has there ever been a better time to mine your data base and gear up for a direct mail campaign to your customers who purchased 3 years ago and entice them to trade-in their current vehicle?
Don’t forget there is no transportation fee, auction fee, or buyer fee on a trade-in and they are quite possibly CHEAPER than an auction purchased vehicle at todays prices-even after a generous allowance (not to mention moving the new car!)

]]> By: JoePistell http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-3107 JoePistell Thu, 05 Feb 2009 03:07:39 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-3107 The new car industry is in a DEPRESSION, not a recession. Question: Can any one put a finger on when & how this new reduced sales rate in the new car sales volume, will impact the price and availability of almost new Used Cars? Is it possible that the aging problem that we all are so use to will stop, or even reverse as the used market passes thru this 2008-2009 new car sales DEPRESSION. I'd like to hear some opinions. Joe The new car industry is in a DEPRESSION, not a recession.

Question:
Can any one put a finger on when & how this new reduced sales rate in the new car sales volume, will impact the price and availability of almost new Used Cars?

Is it possible that the aging problem that we all are so use to will stop, or even reverse as the used market passes thru this 2008-2009 new car sales DEPRESSION.

I’d like to hear some opinions.
Joe

]]> By: JoePistell http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-3106 JoePistell Thu, 05 Feb 2009 03:07:17 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-3106 What a set up for a whip saw. Picture this: Price for used units’ crater 60+ days ago, the brave ones step in and buy units and flip them while everyone else is sitting on ice. The brave ones easily under cut all their competitors and still make a lot of cheese. Our beloved industry is famous for having a lot of ivory tower decision makers and these poor bastards are far enough removed from the battle field that they get their "here say" news late. Then these ivory tower guys need to hear the story multiple times before they react. By the time Mr. Ivory Tower pulls the trigger the market has re-flated just in time to command his minions to fill the shelves with used units because that’s where the future is. What a set up for a whip saw. Picture this:

Price for used units’ crater 60+ days ago, the brave ones step in and buy units and flip them while everyone else is sitting on ice.

The brave ones easily under cut all their competitors and still make a lot of cheese. Our beloved industry is famous for having a lot of ivory tower decision makers and these poor bastards are far enough removed from the battle field that they get their “here say” news late. Then these ivory tower guys need to hear the story multiple times before they react.

By the time Mr. Ivory Tower pulls the trigger the market has re-flated just in time to command his minions to fill the shelves with used units because that’s where the future is.

]]> By: JoePistell http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-19101 JoePistell Thu, 05 Feb 2009 03:07:00 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-19101 What a set up for a whip saw. Picture this: Price for used units’ crater 60+ days ago, the brave ones step in and buy units and flip them while everyone else is sitting on ice. The brave ones easily under cut all their competitors and still make a lot of cheese. Our beloved industry is famous for having a lot of ivory tower decision makers and these poor bastards are far enough removed from the battle field that they get their "here say" news late. Then these ivory tower guys need to hear the story multiple times before they react. By the time Mr. Ivory Tower pulls the trigger the market has re-flated just in time to command his minions to fill the shelves with used units because that’s where the future is. What a set up for a whip saw. Picture this:

Price for used units’ crater 60+ days ago, the brave ones step in and buy units and flip them while everyone else is sitting on ice.

The brave ones easily under cut all their competitors and still make a lot of cheese. Our beloved industry is famous for having a lot of ivory tower decision makers and these poor bastards are far enough removed from the battle field that they get their “here say” news late. Then these ivory tower guys need to hear the story multiple times before they react.

By the time Mr. Ivory Tower pulls the trigger the market has re-flated just in time to command his minions to fill the shelves with used units because that’s where the future is.

]]> By: JoePistell http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-19102 JoePistell Thu, 05 Feb 2009 03:07:00 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-19102 The new car industry is in a DEPRESSION, not a recession. Question: Can any one put a finger on when & how this new reduced sales rate in the new car sales volume, will impact the price and availability of almost new Used Cars? Is it possible that the aging problem that we all are so use to will stop, or even reverse as the used market passes thru this 2008-2009 new car sales DEPRESSION. I'd like to hear some opinions. Joe The new car industry is in a DEPRESSION, not a recession.

Question:
Can any one put a finger on when & how this new reduced sales rate in the new car sales volume, will impact the price and availability of almost new Used Cars?

Is it possible that the aging problem that we all are so use to will stop, or even reverse as the used market passes thru this 2008-2009 new car sales DEPRESSION.

I’d like to hear some opinions.
Joe

]]> By: Bill Derby http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-3105 Bill Derby Wed, 04 Feb 2009 20:46:26 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-3105 Again I have to agree with the Joe P. Rumor floating around at Southern AA today was the used market is stronger on the left coast and some manufacturers (Nissan was named) are planning on shiping out west to fill the demand. Even though I have seen wholesale prices creeping into the retail NADA range here. Doesn't make a lot of sense. I will say that Feb 17 will be a day of infamy for Chrysler if they don't catch the next round. There is a pent up need for fresh inventory but until Chrysler hits a 100% sale rate I will continue to be patient. I cannot believe prices will continue especially for SUVs and Trucks with gas creeping back up and Spring around the corner. I would hate to be sitting on a bunch of this stuff when the you know what hits the fan because it is going to be a blood bath.. Again I have to agree with the Joe P. Rumor floating around at Southern AA today was the used market is stronger on the left coast and some manufacturers (Nissan was named) are planning on shiping out west to fill the demand. Even though I have seen wholesale prices creeping into the retail NADA range here. Doesn’t make a lot of sense.

I will say that Feb 17 will be a day of infamy for Chrysler if they don’t catch the next round. There is a pent up need for fresh inventory but until Chrysler hits a 100% sale rate I will continue to be patient. I cannot believe prices will continue especially for SUVs and Trucks with gas creeping back up and Spring around the corner. I would hate to be sitting on a bunch of this stuff when the you know what hits the fan because it is going to be a blood bath..

]]> By: Bill Derby http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-19100 Bill Derby Wed, 04 Feb 2009 20:46:00 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-19100 Again I have to agree with the Joe P. Rumor floating around at Southern AA today was the used market is stronger on the left coast and some manufacturers (Nissan was named) are planning on shiping out west to fill the demand. Even though I have seen wholesale prices creeping into the retail NADA range here. Doesn't make a lot of sense. I will say that Feb 17 will be a day of infamy for Chrysler if they don't catch the next round. There is a pent up need for fresh inventory but until Chrysler hits a 100% sale rate I will continue to be patient. I cannot believe prices will continue especially for SUVs and Trucks with gas creeping back up and Spring around the corner. I would hate to be sitting on a bunch of this stuff when the you know what hits the fan because it is going to be a blood bath.. Again I have to agree with the Joe P. Rumor floating around at Southern AA today was the used market is stronger on the left coast and some manufacturers (Nissan was named) are planning on shiping out west to fill the demand. Even though I have seen wholesale prices creeping into the retail NADA range here. Doesn’t make a lot of sense.

I will say that Feb 17 will be a day of infamy for Chrysler if they don’t catch the next round. There is a pent up need for fresh inventory but until Chrysler hits a 100% sale rate I will continue to be patient. I cannot believe prices will continue especially for SUVs and Trucks with gas creeping back up and Spring around the corner. I would hate to be sitting on a bunch of this stuff when the you know what hits the fan because it is going to be a blood bath..

]]> By: Joe Pistell http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-3100 Joe Pistell Sat, 31 Jan 2009 15:28:47 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-3100 I agree with Dale's finding that there is a gigantic supply of units on the sidelines ready to flood the market. I commute past the overflow yards for an ADESA auction here in NY and it's still packed to the rafters. But, I love a good debate. I've lobbied that there is a large pent-up retail demand looking for a reason to come out of the fox hole. Here's the demand side of the debate from my desk. We have 6+ months of buyers deferring new car purchases AND these shoppers are stepping down into used units, PLUS, we're 45 days into under $2 gasoline, PLUS the Holidays were another reason to defer buying. Add to that, new car dealers all coming to realize that the used market is their salvation, and there you have it, one hell of a spike in used car prices. I am curious, where are the sellers at wholesale? Why aren't they totally attacking this demand spike with their supply? Is there a bottle neck at the auctions that limits their ability to dump more supply into the markets? While the dance at the auctions play out, Will retail demand remain? My hard working AutoTrader.com rep Lucinda just sent me a PR that fits this debate: >>>...On Saturday, January 24, 2009, AutoTrader.com reached its highest number of Page Views, Sessions and Unique Visitors on a Saturday. On Sunday, January 25, 2009, AutoTrader.com reached its highest number of Page Views on a Sunday. The site also hit over 900,000 Unique Visitors on Monday, January 26, 2009 for the first time since May 2008.<<< This is a great set up for Used Car Retailing. We see signs of strong retail demand and a deep supply, waiting in the wings. Right now, as strange as this sounds, we NEED that supply to hit wholesale NOW. High retail prices will dampen sales and rain on our party. The million dollar question is; are the sellers at wholesale more disciplined than we give them credit for? And when will this supply find its way into the lanes? They had better aggressively sell into this rally before GM and Chrysler run out of TARP funds and CEO parade before congress begins again. The Bankruptcy debate gets more serious as time moves forward. In the end, there are too many "balls in the air" to out fox this market. IMO, if you're forced to buy some units to keep your shelves full, buy only a facing and treat these new arrivals like aged units from day one and flip 'em fast! Joe I agree with Dale’s finding that there is a gigantic supply of units on the sidelines ready to flood the market. I commute past the overflow yards for an ADESA auction here in NY and it’s still packed to the rafters.

But, I love a good debate. I’ve lobbied that there is a large pent-up retail demand looking for a reason to come out of the fox hole. Here’s the demand side of the debate from my desk.

We have 6+ months of buyers deferring new car purchases AND these shoppers are stepping down into used units, PLUS, we’re 45 days into under $2 gasoline, PLUS the Holidays were another reason to defer buying. Add to that, new car dealers all coming to realize that the used market is their salvation, and there you have it, one hell of a spike in used car prices.

I am curious, where are the sellers at wholesale? Why aren’t they totally attacking this demand spike with their supply? Is there a bottle neck at the auctions that limits their ability to dump more supply into the markets?

While the dance at the auctions play out, Will retail demand remain? My hard working AutoTrader.com rep Lucinda just sent me a PR that fits this debate:

>>>…On Saturday, January 24, 2009, AutoTrader.com reached its highest number of Page Views, Sessions and Unique Visitors on a Saturday. On Sunday, January 25, 2009, AutoTrader.com reached its highest number of Page Views on a Sunday. The site also hit over 900,000 Unique Visitors on Monday, January 26, 2009 for the first time since May 2008.<<<

This is a great set up for Used Car Retailing. We see signs of strong retail demand and a deep supply, waiting in the wings. Right now, as strange as this sounds, we NEED that supply to hit wholesale NOW. High retail prices will dampen sales and rain on our party.

The million dollar question is; are the sellers at wholesale more disciplined than we give them credit for? And when will this supply find its way into the lanes? They had better aggressively sell into this rally before GM and Chrysler run out of TARP funds and CEO parade before congress begins again. The Bankruptcy debate gets more serious as time moves forward.

In the end, there are too many “balls in the air” to out fox this market. IMO, if you’re forced to buy some units to keep your shelves full, buy only a facing and treat these new arrivals like aged units from day one and flip ‘em fast!

Joe

]]> By: Joe Pistell http://www.dalepollak.com/2009/01/28/running-out-of-cars/comment-page-1/#comment-19099 Joe Pistell Sat, 31 Jan 2009 15:28:00 +0000 http://www.dalepollak.com/?p=269#comment-19099 I agree with Dale's finding that there is a gigantic supply of units on the sidelines ready to flood the market. I commute past the overflow yards for an ADESA auction here in NY and it's still packed to the rafters. But, I love a good debate. I've lobbied that there is a large pent-up retail demand looking for a reason to come out of the fox hole. Here's the demand side of the debate from my desk. We have 6+ months of buyers deferring new car purchases AND these shoppers are stepping down into used units, PLUS, we're 45 days into under $2 gasoline, PLUS the Holidays were another reason to defer buying. Add to that, new car dealers all coming to realize that the used market is their salvation, and there you have it, one hell of a spike in used car prices. I am curious, where are the sellers at wholesale? Why aren't they totally attacking this demand spike with their supply? Is there a bottle neck at the auctions that limits their ability to dump more supply into the markets? While the dance at the auctions play out, Will retail demand remain? My hard working AutoTrader.com rep Lucinda just sent me a PR that fits this debate: >>>...On Saturday, January 24, 2009, AutoTrader.com reached its highest number of Page Views, Sessions and Unique Visitors on a Saturday. On Sunday, January 25, 2009, AutoTrader.com reached its highest number of Page Views on a Sunday. The site also hit over 900,000 Unique Visitors on Monday, January 26, 2009 for the first time since May 2008.<<< This is a great set up for Used Car Retailing. We see signs of strong retail demand and a deep supply, waiting in the wings. Right now, as strange as this sounds, we NEED that supply to hit wholesale NOW. High retail prices will dampen sales and rain on our party. The million dollar question is; are the sellers at wholesale more disciplined than we give them credit for? And when will this supply find its way into the lanes? They had better aggressively sell into this rally before GM and Chrysler run out of TARP funds and CEO parade before congress begins again. The Bankruptcy debate gets more serious as time moves forward. In the end, there are too many "balls in the air" to out fox this market. IMO, if you're forced to buy some units to keep your shelves full, buy only a facing and treat these new arrivals like aged units from day one and flip 'em fast! Joe I agree with Dale’s finding that there is a gigantic supply of units on the sidelines ready to flood the market. I commute past the overflow yards for an ADESA auction here in NY and it’s still packed to the rafters.

But, I love a good debate. I’ve lobbied that there is a large pent-up retail demand looking for a reason to come out of the fox hole. Here’s the demand side of the debate from my desk.

We have 6+ months of buyers deferring new car purchases AND these shoppers are stepping down into used units, PLUS, we’re 45 days into under $2 gasoline, PLUS the Holidays were another reason to defer buying. Add to that, new car dealers all coming to realize that the used market is their salvation, and there you have it, one hell of a spike in used car prices.

I am curious, where are the sellers at wholesale? Why aren’t they totally attacking this demand spike with their supply? Is there a bottle neck at the auctions that limits their ability to dump more supply into the markets?

While the dance at the auctions play out, Will retail demand remain? My hard working AutoTrader.com rep Lucinda just sent me a PR that fits this debate:

>>>…On Saturday, January 24, 2009, AutoTrader.com reached its highest number of Page Views, Sessions and Unique Visitors on a Saturday. On Sunday, January 25, 2009, AutoTrader.com reached its highest number of Page Views on a Sunday. The site also hit over 900,000 Unique Visitors on Monday, January 26, 2009 for the first time since May 2008.<<<

This is a great set up for Used Car Retailing. We see signs of strong retail demand and a deep supply, waiting in the wings. Right now, as strange as this sounds, we NEED that supply to hit wholesale NOW. High retail prices will dampen sales and rain on our party.

The million dollar question is; are the sellers at wholesale more disciplined than we give them credit for? And when will this supply find its way into the lanes? They had better aggressively sell into this rally before GM and Chrysler run out of TARP funds and CEO parade before congress begins again. The Bankruptcy debate gets more serious as time moves forward.

In the end, there are too many “balls in the air” to out fox this market. IMO, if you’re forced to buy some units to keep your shelves full, buy only a facing and treat these new arrivals like aged units from day one and flip ‘em fast!

Joe

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